DeepSeek rarely speaks out publicly, senior researcher Chen Deli: In the long run, AI may replace the vast majority of human jobs, which is not an exaggeration

On November 7, DeepSeek senior researcher Chen Delhi made a rare speech at the World Internet Conference, pointing out that AI will replace most human work in 10-20 years. He proposed a three-stage evolution path: creating value through human-machine collaboration within 3-5 years, job replacement starting from 5-10 years, and facing the challenge of social order reconstruction in the long run. He emphasized that “this is not an exaggeration”, but a fundamental change based on AI’s transformation from a tool to a “smart subject”.

DeepSeek broke the public silence of nearly a year. On November 7, its senior researcher Chen Delhi predicted at the World Internet Conference held in Wuzhen that after a short “honeymoon period”, AI would probably replace most human work in 10 to 20 years.

According to media reports, this is DeepSeek’s first public appearance in nearly a year since it caused a global sensation in January with a low-cost high-performance model.

Chen Deli clearly described a three-stage evolution path in his speech: in the short term, people and AI collaborate to create greater value; In the medium term, it is accompanied by the replacement of some jobs and an increase in the risk of unemployment; In the long run, society may face large-scale job replacement.

From honeymoon period to large-scale replacement

Chen Deli elaborated on his three-stage prediction of the impact of AI on society at the meeting, providing a clear timeline reference for the market.

Firstly, there will be a honeymoon period of 3 to 5 years in the future. He believes that at this stage, AI is not yet capable of independently completing many tasks, but humans can use AI as a powerful tool to achieve the effect of “1+1>2”, solve more complex problems, and create greater value.

Next is the mid-term stage of 5 to 10 years, during which risks will begin to emerge. Chen Deli predicts that by then, AI will be able to begin replacing some human jobs, leading to an increase in the risk of unemployment. He emphasized that technology companies should play the role of “whistleblowers” at this time, proactively alerting the public to risks and awakening their risk awareness.

Finally, there is a long-term phase of 10 to 20 years. Chen Deli warns that AI may replace “the remaining (human) jobs” and social order will face “huge challenges”. He believes that technology companies must take on the responsibility of “guardians of humanity” at that time, at least ensuring human safety and actively participating in the reshaping of social order.

AI becomes the ‘intelligent subject’

To emphasize the seriousness of his prediction, Chen Deli clearly stated that “the above viewpoint is not an exaggeration”. He explained the fundamental difference between this round of AI revolution and any technological change in history, which constitutes the core logic of his long-term pessimistic judgment.

According to China Youth Daily, Chen Deli pointed out that in previous industrial revolutions, humans invented tools, but the subject of wisdom has always been humans. However, in the ongoing AI revolution, AI itself can also become a “smart agent” and may even be smarter than humans in the future.

This fundamental transformation means that AI’s impact on human society will far exceed any previous technology. It is precisely based on the logic that “intelligent agents” may be replaced that their disruptive potential for employment, social structure, and even human status cannot be underestimated. Reuters quoted him as saying, “I am extremely optimistic about technology itself, but I have a negative view of the impact it may have on society