Will a $1.5 Trillion IPO Rewrite History? SpaceX's Space Empire Is Coming
The world's population has exceeded 8 billion. While most people are trapped in the rat race chasing after luxury cars, big houses, decent jobs, and inheritance for their children, it may be time to realize that life is an open wilderness—there’s no need to stick to one path till the end, as there are far more choices available. For instance, there’s no need to confine ourselves to resource-constrained Earth.The vast universe holds infinitely more resources and space than our planet. Just as explorers of the Age of Discovery connected the world in a true sense, every step humanity takes toward the stars could unlock brand-new opportunities for civilization.
Of course, actions speak louder than words, and this vision is gradually drawing closer to reality.
Capital markets have already responded with real money: when SpaceX hinted at an IPO, its industrial chain saw an immediate rally, and valuation rumors soared from $400 billion to $1.5 trillion. At the heart of this frenzy lies the global capital market’s growing enthusiasm for the space economy.
SpaceX’s skyrocketing valuation and IPO plans mark the global commercial space industry’s entry into an era of explosive growth.
Just as the popularization of smartphones gave birth to the mobile internet ecosystem, the improvement of space infrastructure will foster entirely new economic forms such as space tourism, in-orbit manufacturing, and space data centers.
Meanwhile, in the commercial space sector, numerous Chinese companies dubbed "China’s Elon Musks" are gearing up and eager to take the plunge.
Behind this trend lies a highly metaphorical shift of the times.
Currently, the largest IPO in history was set by Saudi Aramco in 2019 at $1.7 trillion, symbolizing the golden age of traditional energy. Today, the company most likely to break that record is one aiming to take humanity beyond Earth.
From underground oil to celestial stars, the most valuable businesses of the future have long switched tracks. Humanity’s next era is truly bound for the heavens.
Founded 23 years ago, is SpaceX finally heading for an IPO?
On December 11, Elon Musk, a master of public opinion manipulation, once again stirred public interest with an ambiguous remark: "As always, Eric is correct."
Who is Eric? He is a renowned American tech journalist who analyzed on social media that while SpaceX is profitable, Musk harbors bigger dreams—making it the right time to go public.
Subsequently, Musk’s response was widely interpreted as an official confirmation of the IPO plan.
23 years of resisting IPO—why did Musk suddenly change his mind?
What few people know is that Musk was once a staunch opponent of going public.
At a SpaceX company-wide meeting in 2022, Musk poured cold water on employees, warning them not to harbor illusions about an IPO: "Going public is definitely an invitation to pain, and stock prices are nothing but a distraction."
His unwavering stance over the past 23 years stemmed from the continuous pursuit of private markets—capital scrambled to get a slice of the pie, allowing SpaceX to operate without relying on the public market.
So why the sudden U-turn now?
The core reason is that current funding sources can no longer meet his ambitions: building a human settlement on Mars in the long run, developing reusable spacecraft to continuously lower the cost of cosmic travel in the medium term, and deploying data centers in space in the short term. Each of these goals requires astronomical amounts of capital.
More importantly, SpaceX has gradually built up the hard power to avoid being held hostage by capital:
SpaceX is now profitable. Thanks to its satellite internet business becoming a cash cow, projected revenue is set to reach $15 billion in 2025 and is expected to surge to $22–24 billion in 2026, laying a solid foundation for a large-scale IPO.
SpaceX has a powerful backer. The military value of its satellite internet business proven during the Russia-Ukraine conflict has secured it substantial orders from the U.S. military. While these orders do not account for a large share of revenue, they serve as a strong industry endorsement, further opening up the global civilian market and granting the company the right to speak on independent profitability.
SpaceX is the undisputed global leader in commercial space. It has established a technological and scale monopoly in rocket launches, low-Earth orbit satellite networks, and other sectors.
Benefiting from these strengths, even after going public, SpaceX can firmly grasp its development direction without compromising long-term strategies for short-term stock price fluctuations. This is the core confidence that allows Musk to embrace the capital market.
Three Core Business Pillars Supporting a Trillion-Dollar Space Empire
SpaceX is the most sought-after player in the global commercial space industry, setting multiple firsts in the sector. Founded by Musk in May 2002 with the goal of sending humans to Mars, the company launched the first liquid-fuel rocket built by a private enterprise in 2008; in 2020, it sent NASA astronauts to the International Space Station. To date, SpaceX has sent over 60 people into space, including both professional astronauts and private space tourists.
Today, SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company, but the undisputed leader of the global commercial space industry, boasting three major business segments:
Falcon Rockets: Leveraging reusable technology to drastically cut costs. In 2025, Falcon rockets will undertake nearly 90% of the world’s payload launch missions.
Starlink: With 9,000 satellites in orbit and over 8 million subscribers, it is the world’s largest low-Earth orbit satellite network, generating annual revenue of $15–20 billion.
During the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Starlink single-handedly restored interrupted communications for Ukraine, directly turning the tide of the war. This achievement earned SpaceX significant orders from the U.S. military.
The business is expanding at breakneck speed. On December 4 alone, Starlink entered the South Korean market, with cruise ships and seafarers being the first to sign up. It delivers an experience comparable to ground-based networks at a price that is nearly one-hundredth of traditional satellite internet services, with data costs as low as $1 per GB.
More good news is on the horizon: with the rollout of next-generation Direct-to-Cell spectrum, Starlink’s addressable market will instantly expand from "broadband dead zones" to 4 billion existing mobile phones, elevating its ceiling to the scale of global mobile operators.
3. Starship and Future Businesses: As a fully reusable heavy-lift rocket, Starship offers greater payload capacity and lower costs. Estimates show it can carry 650 satellites into orbit in a single launch, enabling large-scale deployment—this payload capacity also lays the groundwork for Mars exploration.
$1.5 Trillion Valuation: Bubble or the Future?
Rumors about SpaceX’s valuation are rife, with figures ranging from $400 billion, $560 billion, $800 billion to $1.5 trillion, sourced from various channels—some derived from internal share purchase prices, others from information obtained from company executives.
The target valuation stands at a staggering $1.5 trillion. If achieved, it will challenge Saudi Aramco’s $1.7 trillion IPO record set in 2019.
In terms of market capitalization, SpaceX would be on par with Musk’s Tesla. However, comparing their projected 2025 revenues, SpaceX’s estimated $15 billion is only about one-sixth of Tesla’s expected $95.2 billion.
Judging solely by financial data, this valuation is indeed exaggerated: SpaceX’s projected 2025 revenue of $15 billion is just one-sixth of Tesla’s expected figure for the same year; based on its maximum projected 2026 revenue of $24 billion, its price-to-sales ratio would be approximately 62.5 times—far exceeding OpenAI’s 38 times.
The capital market is driven by savvy investors, and such a high premium reflects their willingness to bet real money on this story—whether it’s for long-term holdings to share dividends, contributing to humanity’s space dream, or short-term trades with confidence in finding buyers.
As the saying goes, "The ducks are the first to know when the river turns warm." The capital market has already cast its vote with actions: following the IPO news, EchoStar (SATS), which sold spectrum licenses to SpaceX, surged as much as 12% intraday before closing up 6%; shares of space transportation company Rocket Lab rose 3.6%. The collective rally across the industrial chain confirms the market’s optimistic expectations.
Global Race: The Catch-Up and Breakthrough of China’s Commercial Space Sector
In this global competition, Chinese players have already accelerated their pace: at 9:08 on December 13, the Kuaizhou-11 Y8 carrier rocket was successfully launched from the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Center, sending the Di’er-5 space experimenter independently developed by Ziwei Technology into orbit. With a payload capacity of over 300 kilograms, it contributes to the commercialization of space operations; China’s Satellite Network Project has applied for 13,000 satellites, with plans for large-scale network deployment in 2026; companies like LandSpace and CAS Space are making continuous breakthroughs in reusable rocket technology; Huawei mobile phones now support low-Earth orbit satellite communications, accelerating the adoption of space-based applications among the general public.
Nevertheless, the gap remains objectively significant: the maximum orbital payload capacity of China’s private rockets is 6.5 tons, only 1/23 that of Starship; the launch cost ranges from $50,000 to $100,000 per kilogram, 2–6 times that of the Falcon 9; reusable rocket technology has just completed its first test flight, while SpaceX has already achieved rapid turnaround and reuse of rockets within 9 days. As Ge Li, General Manager of the Investment Department at Ziwei Technology, put it, under the new 14th Five-Year Plan, the next decade of commercial space will see more space application scenarios waiting to be developed.
From our perspective, SpaceX’s IPO is never just a corporate capital operation—it represents humanity’s shift from the rat race on Earth to venturing into the stars, a deep integration of technological ideals and capital power.
This is not just Musk’s personal ambition, but humanity’s innate desire to break the boundaries of civilization. On the journey toward the stars and the sea, no one is willing to be merely a spectator.
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