People are definitely listening. The newsletter launched less than a week ago, and it already has 90,000 subscribers. Which brings us again to the truly unsettling question hanging over all of this: Is Burry the canary in the coal mine, warning of a collapse that’s inevitable, or could his fame, his track record, his now unrestricted voice, and a fast-growing audience trigger the very implosion he’s predicting?
History suggests this isn’t so crazy. Jim Chanos, the famous short seller, didn’t create Enron’s accounting fraud, but his high-profile criticisms in 2000 and 2001 gave other investors permission to question the company and accelerated its unraveling. Prominent hedge fund manager David Einhorn’s detailed takedown of Lehman Brothers’ accounting tricks at a 2008 conference made other investors more skeptical and may have hastened the loss of confidence that led to collapse. In both cases, the underlying problems were real, but a credible critic with a platform created a crisis of confidence that became self-fulfilling.
If enough investors believe Burry about AI overbuilding, they will sell. The selling will validate his bearish thesis. More investors will sell. Burry doesn’t need to be right about every detail – he just needs to be persuasive enough to trigger the stampede. Looking at Nvidia’s November performance, it’s easy to conclude Burry’s warnings are taking hold; seeing its shares’ performance over the entire year, it’s less obvious that’s the case.
Much clearer is that Nvidia has everything to lose, including an almost mind-blowingly massive market cap and its position as the most indispensable company of the AI age. Meanwhile, Burry has nothing to lose but his reputation and a new megaphone that he’ll presumably be using at full volume for the foreseeable future.
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