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As US-Europe relations remain strained due to the US's latest National Security Strategy Report and remarks by US President Trump, intensive diplomatic activities and dialogues among the United States, Europe and Ukraine on ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict have continued.
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Former US Secretary of State Blinken stated at the 2024 Munich Security Conference that "in the international system, if you are not at the table, you will be on the menu". Nowadays, it seems that the whole of Europe is on Trump's "menu".

According to Xinhua News Agency, on December 11 local time, German Chancellor Merz, while attending a press conference jointly with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, stated that he and leaders of many European countries had sent a proposal to US President Trump, which included suggestions on territorial concessions that Ukraine is prepared to make to end the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

On the same day, Trump revealed that the US side is assessing whether to go to Europe on the 13th to attend an international conference on the Ukraine issue. He also noted that the United States remains willing to honor the security commitments previously made to the EU, such as intelligence sharing and air support, after the signing of a Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. He claimed that such participation will help promote the Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations.

Separately, as reported by the BBC, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated on the 11th that the United States has proposed that Ukraine withdraw its troops from eastern Donetsk and establish a "special economic zone" in the areas currently under its control. Zelenskyy also pointed out that "territorial issues and the control of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant" remain the two unresolved major issues in Ukraine's peace plan proposal.

To coordinate the positions of various parties, Zelenskyy has recently launched an intensive visit tour in Europe. The Financial Times reported on the 10th that the main reason for Zelenskyy's intensive meetings with European leaders is that Trump is increasing pressure on Ukraine to "reach an agreement with Russia by December 25".

Chen Yu, deputy director of the Institute of Eurasian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, stated in an interview with The Paper that although various parties have made many statements and taken numerous actions to promote the "peace plan", the core content and detailed information of the plan "remain unclear", making it difficult for the outside world to form a clear judgment. He noted that although there are still significant differences in the positions of various parties on core concerns, "the active discussions among all parties are in themselves a positive sign". However, due to the irreconcilable differences between Russia and Ukraine and the stalemated battlefield situation, "there are still many uncertainties regarding the United States' attempt to force both sides to accept the so-called 'peace' it intends to establish".

Territorial and Security Issues Remain Core Concerns

According to Xinhua News Agency, the proposal mentioned by Merz was sent after he held a phone call with French President Macron, British Prime Minister Starmer and Trump on December 10. Merz stated that he and leaders of other European countries have made it clear to Trump that the issue of territorial concessions must be decided by the Ukrainian president and the Ukrainian people.

Merz indicated that in accordance with the planned process, European representatives will hold talks with their US counterparts this weekend, and a meeting may be held in Berlin early next week. He also emphasized that the solution reached through negotiations must safeguard Europe's security interests and must not be at the expense of the unity of the EU and NATO.

According to the French Presidential Palace, the phone call between the leaders of Britain, France, Germany and Trump on the 10th lasted about 40 minutes. All parties "discussed the latest progress of the US-led mediation" and unanimously agreed that "this is a crucial moment for Ukraine, the Ukrainian people and the common security of the Euro-Atlantic region".

On the same day, Ukraine also made the latest response to the "peace plan" previously proposed by the United States. As reported by the US news website Axios, on the 10th, Oleksii Danilov, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, sent Ukraine's reply to Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and the US negotiator. Ukrainian officials stated that the reply included relevant comments, revisions, and "new ideas for resolving controversial issues such as territorial disputes and the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant". The report noted that this reply was formulated by Ukraine after several days of consultations with European countries, mainly Britain, France and Germany (known as the E3).

In addition, as reported by Agence France-Presse, a Ukrainian official familiar with the latest version of the reply stated that this version "fully takes into account Ukraine's aspirations and proposes further solutions to the problems". The official added, "We will not disclose specific details before waiting for the US response".

According to Ukrainian media reports, Zelenskyy stated on the 9th that the initial 28-point "peace plan" has been split into three documents: a 20-point framework agreement, a document on US-European security guarantees for Ukraine, and a document on Ukraine's post-war reconstruction.

On December 6, the US and Ukrainian delegations concluded a three-day meeting in Miami, focusing on territorial and security guarantee issues. Citing informed sources, Axios reported on the 6th that discussions on territorial issues were arduous, as Russia still demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from parts of the Donbas region under Ukrainian control, and the United States was attempting to put forward a new proposal. Another key issue was the US security guarantees for Ukraine. A source said that the two sides had made significant progress and were close to reaching an agreement, but further consultations were still needed to ensure that both sides had a consistent understanding of the draft security guarantee agreement.

On the 6th, Zelenskyy posted on social media that he had a "long and substantive" phone call with Trump's envoys Vitkov and Kushner on the same day. He stated that Ukraine will cooperate sincerely with the United States to achieve genuine peace. The two sides agreed on the next steps and the form of future dialogues with the United States. He awaited a detailed report from the Ukrainian delegation to discuss the relevant proposals.

Chen Yu pointed out that the prospect of reaching an agreement depends on two crucial issues: territorial disputes and security guarantees.

"Whether the two sides can compromise with each other on territorial issues, or formulate a creative and mutually acceptable solution, may be a key factor affecting the prospect of peace," he analyzed. "Regarding security guarantees, there is a fundamental gap between Russia and Ukraine's positions. Ukraine insists on obtaining security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty from Western countries, while Russia hopes that Ukraine will maintain a neutral and demilitarized status. Therefore, the demands of the two sides are essentially contradictory."

Chen Yu added that given the current huge gaps between various parties, it will be quite difficult to achieve peace. "If all parties fail to find solutions to these two issues, the matter may eventually turn into a game of passing the buck."

Zelenskyy Tours Europe to Seek Support

In fact, after Trump put forward the 28-point "peace plan" for Russia-Ukraine peace last month, all parties have accelerated consultations and diplomatic progress on a ceasefire and the implementation of the peace plan.

Since last week, Zelenskyy has continued to travel extensively across Europe. On December 2, he arrived in Dublin, the capital of Ireland, and held meetings with Irish President Higgins and Prime Minister Martin. After the talks, the Irish government announced that it would provide 125 million euros in aid to Ukraine. On the 8th, Zelenskyy held talks with Starmer, Macron and Merz in London. According to the BBC, Starmer and Macron expressed concerns about Ukraine's security guarantees during the talks, while Merz expressed doubts about the US providing detailed terms of the agreement. The report stated that the three reaffirmed the necessity of "standing with Ukraine".

After the London talks, Zelenskyy flew to Brussels on the same day and held discussions with NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg, European Commission President von der Leyen and European Council President Costa on the peace process and enhancing Ukraine's security capabilities. On the 9th, he flew to Rome for a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Meloni.

The Independent noted that due to his extremely tight schedule, Zelenskyy did not even have time to hold a public press conference and had to communicate with reporters via a messaging app on his flight to Rome. He told reporters that Ukraine "will not cede any land to Russia".

As reported by the BBC on the 11th, Zelenskyy stated that the United States is currently considering a solution where Ukrainian troops withdraw from parts of Donetsk and Russian troops commit not to advance into the region. He added that the region would become a "special economic zone" or a "demilitarized zone". However, he emphasized that it would be unfair for Ukraine to withdraw its troops unilaterally, and Russia should also withdraw an equivalent distance.

While consultations were ongoing between the United States and Ukraine, European countries also maintained continuous communication with the United States. According to the BBC, after their phone call with Trump, the E3 leaders issued a statement stating that they had "discussed the latest developments in the US-led peace negotiations and welcomed their efforts to achieve a just and lasting peace in Ukraine and end the bloodshed. The formulation of the peace plan is proceeding at a brisk pace and will continue in the coming days." Additionally, US media reported that Trump told reporters at the White House that he had discussed the Ukraine issue with European leaders "in quite strong terms" and added, "We are waiting for answers before making progress".

Chen Yu pointed out that Ukraine is in a relatively weak position and needs Europe to stand with it. At the same time, Europe cannot accept a comprehensive concession or a surrender-like arrangement in the final settlement. Therefore, the two sides hold similar positions on this issue and need to unite to cope with US pressure.

"Especially on some key clauses, efforts should be made to align the peace plan more with the interests of Ukraine and Europe, minimize concessions and compromises, and ensure that core concerns are addressed," Chen Yu analyzed.

Trump's Pressure Tactics Misaligned with the Russia-Ukraine Issue

Notably, Zelenskyy has recently shown a compromising attitude on certain issues. According to a report by Lianhe Zaobao on the 11th, Zelenskyy stated that he has discussed laws and other matters related to holding elections with the Ukrainian parliament and urged other countries, including the United States, not to exert pressure on this issue.

Recently, Trump has accused the Ukrainian government of avoiding elections under the pretext of the war and has repeatedly called on Ukraine to hold a general election. As early as December 9, Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine is willing to hold elections within 60 to 90 days if the United States and Europe can ensure the security of the elections. On the 11th, he further stated that he is willing to support holding a general election during the state of war on the premise of obtaining sufficient security guarantees from international partners, and has requested legislators to start preparing relevant legislative amendments. However, he also emphasized that "if an election is indeed necessary, a ceasefire must be implemented, at least during the election process".

Chen Yu argued that Zelenskyy's softened attitude is more likely a "tactical adjustment". He analyzed that some of the compromise proposals put forward by Ukraine are actually difficult for Russia to accept, whether regarding security or territorial issues, and these proposals "are most likely a negotiation strategy adopted by Ukraine". Regarding the general election issue, Chen Yu believed that Zelenskyy is actually adopting a strategy of advancing by retreating. His softened stance is mainly an attempt to alleviate the enormous pressure from Trump, and his position on key issues has not undergone a fundamental change.

Politico pointed out that since returning to the White House, Trump's attitude towards Ukraine has been inconsistent. When Zelenskyy visited the United States in February, Trump claimed that Ukraine "had no leverage". However, by September, he advocated that Ukraine "recover all its territory". In recent weeks, Trump has once again changed his stance and is vigorously promoting a peace plan that would require Ukraine to cede the entire Donbas region to Russia in exchange for vague US security guarantees.

Chen Yu stated that the fundamental reason why Trump's continuous pressure tactics have failed to achieve the "rapid Russia-Ukraine ceasefire" he desires is that "his pressure tactics are misaligned with resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict". He analyzed three key factors: First, although Ukraine is in a weak position, it "has not collapsed on the battlefield" with European support. As a major world power, Russia will not easily submit to US pressure. Second, the historical and realistic context of the Russia-Ukraine issue is extremely complex, yet Trump intends to solve it through "a simplistic commercial pressure logic, which is inherently flawed". Finally, Trump has attempted to incorporate his own interests and those of his associates into the settlement plan. "This interest-driven approach will only further complicate the issue."

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