The Quantum Era Crept Up While You Were Watching AI

December 30, 2025, 4:00 AM (GMT+8)

By Catherine Thorbecke

Catherine Thorbecke is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia tech. Previously, she was a tech reporter at CNN and ABC News.

[A Rigetti quantum computer displayed at the Nvidia GTC in October. Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg]

The United Nations has designated 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, marking a surge of announcements and investments in the field.

Quantum technology holds transformative potential across sectors from healthcare to finance and is projected to generate up to $97 billion in global revenue by 2035.

A global race is underway, with the U.S. currently in the lead—but China is rapidly closing the gap. Businesses and policymakers are being urged to develop new quantum strategies and talent pipelines to address both risks and opportunities.

Step aside, artificial intelligence. Another transformative technology—one with the potential to reshape industries and reorder geopolitical power—is finally moving out of the lab: quantum.

The United Nations dubbed 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. It’s been marked by a flurry of announcements—and a mountain of hype—around a mind-boggling field of science long dismissed as perpetually a decade away from usefulness. But that’s how people talked about AI, too, before ChatGPT spurred the current global arms race and investor euphoria.

Quantum technology leverages the strange mechanics of quantum physics—the way particles behave at the atomic level—to build devices far more powerful than today’s computers, sensors, and communication systems.

Classical computers process information in bits, which can be either “0” or “1.” Quantum computers use qubits, which can exist in a superposition of both states simultaneously—allow me to briefly explain. This enables them to evaluate vast numbers of possibilities at astonishing speeds.

Though seemingly esoteric, quantum technology has the potential to disrupt everything from medicine to finance. McKinsey estimates it could generate up to 97 billion in global revenue by 2035. Bain & Company, looking at the broader ecosystem, suggests quantum could unlock as much as 250 billion in market value.

AI dominated headlines this year. But if you haven’t been paying close attention, here’s what you may have missed in quantum—and what I’ll be watching next.

Early this year, something rare happened in this field: it went viral. In February, Microsoft unveiled its first quantum computing chip and claimed it could eventually scale to one million qubits on a single processor. A crisp, clear YouTube video demystified the jargon typically associated with the science and concluded with the declaration: “We are at the beginning of the quantum era.” Some researchers later questioned whether the PR had oversold the underlying science.

But Microsoft’s splashy reveal followed closely on the heels of Alphabet’s Google, which had announced it would launch its Willow quantum chip by the end of 2024. Then Amazon’s cloud division previewed its Ocelot chip, claiming it could reduce the cost of quantum error correction by up to 90% compared to previous approaches. Given that qubits are exquisitely sensitive to even the tiniest environmental disturbances, reducing errors remains one of the biggest challenges.

In June, IBM—a pioneer in the field—released an impressively detailed roadmap targeting a fault-tolerant (i.e., less error-prone) quantum computer by 2029. In October, Google announced it had run a “verifiable” algorithm on its Willow chip—meaning the result could be replicated on other quantum systems. Dubbed “Quantum Echoes,” the algorithm ran 13,000 times faster on Willow than on the world’s most powerful supercomputer, according to Google.

The remarkable momentum shown by big tech and startups in 2025 would have been unimaginable just five years ago. Investors have taken notice, and capital is pouring in. This momentum shows no sign of slowing in 2026.

[The Willow chip. Source: Google]

The U.S. still leads, but China is catching up fast. I recently wrote about the surge in Chinese patent filings—an indicator analysts have previously used to forecast China’s rise in other fields, such as electric vehicles. John Martinis, one of this year’s Nobel laureates in Physics, warned earlier this month that China is trailing by mere “nanoseconds.”

A new geopolitical race is on. Beijing has allocated 15.3billioninpublicfundingforquantumcomputing—morethaneighttimesthe1.9 billion committed by the U.S. Western nations were caught off guard by China’s rapid advances in AI; they cannot afford to be blindsided again. The competition in quantum computing is undoubtedly fiercer—and yet, breakthroughs in the coming year could still deliver surprises.

Despite the excitement, the limitations of today’s machines cannot be ignored.

At the start of the year, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang predicted quantum computers were still 15 to 30 years away from practical use. He later admitted he was wrong and, in June, announced the technology could tackle “interesting problems” within the next few years. But Huang isn’t alone in his caution. In August, the head of quantum hardware at Amazon Web Services offered a similar 15- to 30-year timeline. Even the most optimistic forecasts in the industry suggest it will be at least five more years before quantum computers deliver real-world impact. The wide range of predictions underscores just how difficult it remains to stabilize large numbers of qubits and reduce error rates.

One of the most immediate risks stems from one of quantum’s most famous algorithms. In theory, Shor’s algorithm could allow a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to break many of the encryption methods currently used by banks and governments online. New “post-quantum” cryptographic standards are under development, but whether existing systems will become obsolete is increasingly a question of “when,” not “if.”

A Bain survey this year found that 73% of IT security professionals expect this to pose a “significant risk” within the next five years, and 32% anticipate a major threat within three years. Yet only 9% said they have a response plan in place.

This disconnect defines the reality of quantum in 2026: time is short, money is flowing, and the global race is on—but preparedness lags far behind. Now is the critical moment for businesses and policymakers to build new quantum strategies and talent reserves, starting with a concrete post-quantum security plan. The hype is loud, but the truth—that we’re unprepared—is being drowned out.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinio ... ou-were-watching-ai

The Quantum Era Crept Up While You Were Watching AI

December 30, 2025, 4:00 AM (GMT+8)

By Catherine Thorbecke

Catherine Thorbecke is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia tech. Previously, she was a tech reporter at CNN and ABC News.

[A Rigetti quantum computer displayed at the Nvidia GTC in October. Photographer: Kent Nishimura/Bloomberg]

The United Nations has designated 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, marking a surge of announcements and investments in the field.

Quantum technology holds transformative potential across sectors from healthcare to finance and is projected to generate up to $97 billion in global revenue by 2035.

A global race is underway, with the U.S. currently in the lead—but China is rapidly closing the gap. Businesses and policymakers are being urged to develop new quantum strategies and talent pipelines to address both risks and opportunities.

Step aside, artificial intelligence. Another transformative technology—one with the potential to reshape industries and reorder geopolitical power—is finally moving out of the lab: quantum.

The United Nations dubbed 2025 the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology. It’s been marked by a flurry of announcements—and a mountain of hype—around a mind-boggling field of science long dismissed as perpetually a decade away from usefulness. But that’s how people talked about AI, too, before ChatGPT spurred the current global arms race and investor euphoria.

Quantum technology leverages the strange mechanics of quantum physics—the way particles behave at the atomic level—to build devices far more powerful than today’s computers, sensors, and communication systems.

Classical computers process information in bits, which can be either “0” or “1.” Quantum computers use qubits, which can exist in a superposition of both states simultaneously—allow me to briefly explain. This enables them to evaluate vast numbers of possibilities at astonishing speeds.

Though seemingly esoteric, quantum technology has the potential to disrupt everything from medicine to finance. McKinsey estimates it could generate up to 97 billion in global revenue by 2035. Bain & Company, looking at the broader ecosystem, suggests quantum could unlock as much as 250 billion in market value.

AI dominated headlines this year. But if you haven’t been paying close attention, here’s what you may have missed in quantum—and what I’ll be watching next.

Early this year, something rare happened in this field: it went viral. In February, Microsoft unveiled its first quantum computing chip and claimed it could eventually scale to one million qubits on a single processor. A crisp, clear YouTube video demystified the jargon typically associated with the science and concluded with the declaration: “We are at the beginning of the quantum era.” Some researchers later questioned whether the PR had oversold the underlying science.

But Microsoft’s splashy reveal followed closely on the heels of Alphabet’s Google, which had announced it would launch its Willow quantum chip by the end of 2024. Then Amazon’s cloud division previewed its Ocelot chip, claiming it could reduce the cost of quantum error correction by up to 90% compared to previous approaches. Given that qubits are exquisitely sensitive to even the tiniest environmental disturbances, reducing errors remains one of the biggest challenges.

In June, IBM—a pioneer in the field—released an impressively detailed roadmap targeting a fault-tolerant (i.e., less error-prone) quantum computer by 2029. In October, Google announced it had run a “verifiable” algorithm on its Willow chip—meaning the result could be replicated on other quantum systems. Dubbed “Quantum Echoes,” the algorithm ran 13,000 times faster on Willow than on the world’s most powerful supercomputer, according to Google.

The remarkable momentum shown by big tech and startups in 2025 would have been unimaginable just five years ago. Investors have taken notice, and capital is pouring in. This momentum shows no sign of slowing in 2026.

[The Willow chip. Source: Google]

The U.S. still leads, but China is catching up fast. I recently wrote about the surge in Chinese patent filings—an indicator analysts have previously used to forecast China’s rise in other fields, such as electric vehicles. John Martinis, one of this year’s Nobel laureates in Physics, warned earlier this month that China is trailing by mere “nanoseconds.”

A new geopolitical race is on. Beijing has allocated 15.3billioninpublicfundingforquantumcomputing—morethaneighttimesthe1.9 billion committed by the U.S. Western nations were caught off guard by China’s rapid advances in AI; they cannot afford to be blindsided again. The competition in quantum computing is undoubtedly fiercer—and yet, breakthroughs in the coming year could still deliver surprises.

Despite the excitement, the limitations of today’s machines cannot be ignored.

At the start of the year, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang predicted quantum computers were still 15 to 30 years away from practical use. He later admitted he was wrong and, in June, announced the technology could tackle “interesting problems” within the next few years. But Huang isn’t alone in his caution. In August, the head of quantum hardware at Amazon Web Services offered a similar 15- to 30-year timeline. Even the most optimistic forecasts in the industry suggest it will be at least five more years before quantum computers deliver real-world impact. The wide range of predictions underscores just how difficult it remains to stabilize large numbers of qubits and reduce error rates.

One of the most immediate risks stems from one of quantum’s most famous algorithms. In theory, Shor’s algorithm could allow a sufficiently powerful quantum computer to break many of the encryption methods currently used by banks and governments online. New “post-quantum” cryptographic standards are under development, but whether existing systems will become obsolete is increasingly a question of “when,” not “if.”

A Bain survey this year found that 73% of IT security professionals expect this to pose a “significant risk” within the next five years, and 32% anticipate a major threat within three years. Yet only 9% said they have a response plan in place.

This disconnect defines the reality of quantum in 2026: time is short, money is flowing, and the global race is on—but preparedness lags far behind. Now is the critical moment for businesses and policymakers to build new quantum strategies and talent reserves, starting with a concrete post-quantum security plan. The hype is loud, but the truth—that we’re unprepared—is being drowned out.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinio ... ou-were-watching-ai