In November, ADP employment in the United States decreased by 32000 people, the lowest level since March 2023, and is expected to increase by 10000 people, compared to a previous increase of 42000 people.
       
2. The November ISM non manufacturing PMI for the United States was 52.6, with an expected reading of 52.1 and a previous value of 52.4, marking a new high since February 2025.
       
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ADP data, also known as small non farm payroll, has caused a huge unexpected upset tonight, with ADP employment directly turning negative. This decline is mainly led by small businesses, with small businesses with less than 50 employees cutting 120000 jobs in a single month.
       
This also confirms the viewpoint I mentioned in my pre-market observation today regarding the accumulation of underlying pressure. Due to high financing costs and weak demand, the most vulnerable small and micro enterprises have begun to lay off employees significantly to protect themselves, and the collapse of employment in small enterprises is a precursor to credit risk.
       
The ISM non manufacturing PMI was slightly higher than expected, still consistent with last month's data conclusion, and the overall US economy is still supported by the service industry.
       
This data combination is generally dovish for the Fed, which is a plus point for further interest rate cuts. However, as inflation has not been fully addressed, the final impact is likely to be reflected in the wording of the Guan side, rather than whether to cut interest rates.

In November, ADP employment in the United States decreased by 32000 people, the lowest level since March 2023, and is expected to increase by 10000 people, compared to a previous increase of 42000 people.
       
2. The November ISM non manufacturing PMI for the United States was 52.6, with an expected reading of 52.1 and a previous value of 52.4, marking a new high since February 2025.
       
-
       
ADP data, also known as small non farm payroll, has caused a huge unexpected upset tonight, with ADP employment directly turning negative. This decline is mainly led by small businesses, with small businesses with less than 50 employees cutting 120000 jobs in a single month.
       
This also confirms the viewpoint I mentioned in my pre-market observation today regarding the accumulation of underlying pressure. Due to high financing costs and weak demand, the most vulnerable small and micro enterprises have begun to lay off employees significantly to protect themselves, and the collapse of employment in small enterprises is a precursor to credit risk.
       
The ISM non manufacturing PMI was slightly higher than expected, still consistent with last month's data conclusion, and the overall US economy is still supported by the service industry.
       
This data combination is generally dovish for the Fed, which is a plus point for further interest rate cuts. However, as inflation has not been fully addressed, the final impact is likely to be reflected in the wording of the Guan side, rather than whether to cut interest rates.