Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week, investors are more concerned about whether the post meeting statement and future guidance will lean towards hawks. The overall market is in a state of waiting and observation, with stock and bond prices fluctuating narrowly.

According to Wall Street reports, job vacancies for JOLTS in the United States rose to a five month high in October, but recruitment and layoffs reached a new high in over two years. After four consecutive weeks of job losses by ADP, the average number of employed people rebounded last month.

The labor market presents a typical structural cooling feature of "low recruitment, low mobility, and rising layoffs" - enough to support a rate cut, but not enough to support a smooth and sustained easing path. The market's pricing for 'hawkish interest rate cuts' has further heated up. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this week is still close to 90%, but expectations for rate cuts after 2026 have significantly withdrawn.

(The probability of interest rate cuts in 2026 decreases)

The yield of US Treasury bonds fluctuated sharply throughout the day, with the 10-year yield fluctuating around the 4.18% line, and the short-term performance relatively weaker. On a global level, more and more central banks are seen as approaching or ending their easing cycle, which has also marginally pushed up the global term premium, making it difficult for US bonds to obtain a "one-way tailwind".

(Global bond yields follow Citigroup's Global Economic Surprise Index to rise, reflecting recent global economic data exceeding expectations)

As a result, the performance of the US stock market appeared hesitant and volatile, with major indices experiencing mixed gains and losses, and the financial sector becoming a significant drag. According to Wall Street observations, JPMorgan Chase's stock price plummeted and dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average after disclosing its unexpected spending forecast for next year and mentioning that the consumer environment was "more fragile". Technology stocks have shown relatively strong performance, supporting the Nasdaq to close slightly higher.

(JPMorgan Chase's stock price plummets)

Silver has performed outstandingly, breaking through the $60 mark and setting a new historical high, significantly outperforming gold. The resilience of the US dollar and expectations of loose supply and demand next year continue to pressure the energy market. WTI crude oil fell below the key technical level and fell to around $58 per barrel, continuing its recent decline.

Overall, in the next 24 hours, it will not be the interest rate cut itself that will determine the market's direction, but rather Powell's wording.

On Tuesday, the US stock market experienced mixed gains and losses, with JPMorgan Chase falling nearly 5% and leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average's component stocks. The chip index stopped rising for two consecutive years, with Nvidia closing down 0.31% and analysts suggesting that demand for H200 chips may be lower than expected, while Broadcom rose over 1%, marking three consecutive increases and reaching a historic high.

US stock benchmark index:

The S&P 500 index closed down 6 points, or 0.09%, at 6840.51 points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 179.03 points, or 0.38%, at 47560.29.

The Nasdaq closed up 30.59 points, or 0.13%, at 23576.49 points.

The Russell 2000 Index closed up 0.21% at 2526.24 points.

(intraday trend of US stock benchmark index)

ETFs in the US stock industry:

The healthcare sector fell 1%, the industrial, real estate, and financial sectors fell up to 0.7%, the technology sector rose 0.1%, and the energy sector rose 0.6%.

(December 9th ETFs for various industry sectors in the US stock market)

Seven tech giants:

The Magnificent 7 index of US technology stocks rose 0.11% to 208.56 points.

Tesla closed up 1.27%, Google A rose 1.07%, Amazon and Microsoft rose up to 0.45%, Apple and Nvidia closed down up to 0.31%, and Meta fell 1.48%.

Chip stocks:

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 0.04% at 7372.51 points.

TSMC's revenue increased by 0.51%, while AMD's rose by 0.23%.

Chinese concept stocks:

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.37% at 7730.61 points.

Baidu closed down 4.71%, while Beike, Wenyuan Zhixing, and Xiaopeng fell at least 3.46%, Ideal fell 3.12%, Bilibili and Yihang Intelligence fell at most 2.42%, and Artus Solar, Zaiding Pharmaceutical, and Alibaba fell at least 1.37%.

Other stocks:

Berkshire Hathaway's B-class stock closed down 1.17%, while Eli Lilly fell 1.54%.

Adobe closed up 1.53%, while Broadcom rose 1.29%, Salesforce、 Oracle and Qualcomm rose as much as 0.57%, while Netflix closed down 0.08%.

The Eurozone blue chip index closed down more than 0.1%, with component stocks such as Eurovision, Luxgen, and MediaTek falling about 5.6%. The German stock index closed up about 0.5%, while the Italian banking sector rose about 0.9%.

Pan European European stocks:

The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.10% at 577.77 points.

The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index closed down 0.13% at 5718.32 points.

National stock indices:

The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.49% at 24162.65, with constituent stock Bayer leading the way with a 4.13% increase.

The CAC 40 index in France closed down 0.69% at 8052.51 points, led by a 5.57% drop in the constituent stock Essilo Luxottica EL.

The FTSE 100 index in the UK closed down 0.03% at 9642.01 points.

(Performance of Major European and American Benchmark Stock Indices on December 9th)

Sector and individual stocks:

Among the blue chip stocks in the Eurozone, Bayer, listed in Frankfurt, Germany, closed up 4.13%, Rheinmetall RHM rose 3.56%, Allianz Insurance rose 3%, Deutsche Bank rose 1.89%, and Wacker Group rose 1.58%, ranking fifth.

Among all the constituent stocks of the European STOXX 600 index, LPP Group closed up 6.26%, Hensoldt shares rose 5.86%, military stock Renk Group rose 5.50%, ranking third, and Bayer rose sixth.

The employment indicators that the Federal Reserve is concerned about unexpectedly rebounded, with job vacancies in the United States rising instead of decreasing. US bond prices stopped rising and fell, and yields rose in a V-shaped pattern during trading. The yield of 10-year US bonds is approaching a two month high. The prices of British bonds have generally risen, and officials from the Bank of England have expressed support for expectations of interest rate cuts.

US treasury bonds

In late New York trading, the yield of the benchmark 10-year US treasury bond bond rose 1.76 basis points to 4.1819%.

The two-year US Treasury yield rose by 3.59 basis points, setting a new daily high of 3.6105%, and quickly rose by about 4 basis points when job vacancy data was released.

(Trends in Major Term Yields of US Treasuries)

European debt:

In late European trading, the yield of German 10-year treasury bond fell 1.2 basis points to 2.850%, and intraday trading was between 2.879% and 2.837%.

The yield on the 10-year treasury bond bond fell 1.8 basis points to 4.510%. The two-year UK Treasury yield fell 2.0 basis points to 3.791%.

The yield of French 10-year treasury bond bonds fell 2.7 basis points to 3.555% on the refresh day.

After the announcement of job vacancies in the United States, the US dollar index accelerated to a week-high, and cryptocurrencies rose. Bitcoin rose more than 5% during trading, breaking $94000, and Ethereum rose nearly 10% at one point.

dollar

In late trading in New York, the ICE US dollar index rose 0.13% to 99.217 points.

The Bloomberg US Dollar Index rose 0.03% to 1214.47 points, with intraday trading ranging from 1212.64 to 1215.70 points.

Non US currency:

In late trading in New York, the euro fell 0.09% against the US dollar, the pound fell 0.18% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.06% against the Swiss franc.

Japanese Yen:

In late trading in New York, the US dollar rose 0.37% against the Japanese yen to 155.90 yen, with intraday trading in the range of 154.90-155.99 yen.

The euro rose 0.35% against the yen to 181.45 yen; The pound rose 0.34% against the yen to 207.752 yen.

Offshore Renminbi:

At the end of trading in New York, the US dollar was trading at 7.0610 yuan against offshore Chinese yuan, down 107 points from the end of trading in New York on Monday. The overall trading for the day was in the range of 7.0721-7.0600 yuan.

Cryptocurrency:

At the end of trading in New York, the CCME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract rose 2.12% compared to the end of trading on Monday, closing at $92915.

(Bitcoin has risen significantly)

The CME Ethereum Futures DCR main contract rose 5.97% to $3330.50.

Crude oil has fallen to a two-week low for two consecutive weeks, with a intraday drop of over 1%. WTI crude oil fell below the key technical level and fell to around $58 per barrel, continuing its recent decline.

Crude oil:

WTI January crude oil futures closed down $0.63, or 1.07%, at $58.25 per barrel.

(WTI crude oil futures approach the lower edge of the downward channel again)

Brent crude oil futures for February closed down $0.55, or 0.88%, at $61.94 per barrel.

natural gas:

NYMEX's January natural gas futures closed at $4.5740 per million British thermal units.

Gold hit a one week low in intraday trading and then turned up, with futures closing at a low for the month; Silver rebounded, breaking $60 for the first time in history, and futures silver rose nearly 5% at one point. London copper fell more than 1%, bidding farewell to record highs.

Gold:

In late trading in New York, spot gold rose 0.44% to $4208.92 per ounce, with intraday trading ranging from $4170.29 to $4221.39.

(Spot gold price)

COMEX gold futures rose 0.47% to $4237.40 per ounce, and also set a new daily high of $4251.70 after the release of job vacancy data in the United States.

Silver:

In late trading in New York, spot silver rose 4.34% to $60.6777 per ounce.

COMEX silver futures rose 4.78% to $61.205 per ounce.

Other metals:

In late trading in New York, COMEX copper futures fell 1.98% to $5.3365 per pound.

Spot platinum rose 2.62% to $1697.12 per ounce; Spot palladium rose 2.41% to $1511.46 per ounce.

Although the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this week, investors are more concerned about whether the post meeting statement and future guidance will lean towards hawks. The overall market is in a state of waiting and observation, with stock and bond prices fluctuating narrowly.

According to Wall Street reports, job vacancies for JOLTS in the United States rose to a five month high in October, but recruitment and layoffs reached a new high in over two years. After four consecutive weeks of job losses by ADP, the average number of employed people rebounded last month.

The labor market presents a typical structural cooling feature of "low recruitment, low mobility, and rising layoffs" - enough to support a rate cut, but not enough to support a smooth and sustained easing path. The market's pricing for 'hawkish interest rate cuts' has further heated up. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this week is still close to 90%, but expectations for rate cuts after 2026 have significantly withdrawn.

(The probability of interest rate cuts in 2026 decreases)

The yield of US Treasury bonds fluctuated sharply throughout the day, with the 10-year yield fluctuating around the 4.18% line, and the short-term performance relatively weaker. On a global level, more and more central banks are seen as approaching or ending their easing cycle, which has also marginally pushed up the global term premium, making it difficult for US bonds to obtain a "one-way tailwind".

(Global bond yields follow Citigroup's Global Economic Surprise Index to rise, reflecting recent global economic data exceeding expectations)

As a result, the performance of the US stock market appeared hesitant and volatile, with major indices experiencing mixed gains and losses, and the financial sector becoming a significant drag. According to Wall Street observations, JPMorgan Chase's stock price plummeted and dragged down the Dow Jones Industrial Average after disclosing its unexpected spending forecast for next year and mentioning that the consumer environment was "more fragile". Technology stocks have shown relatively strong performance, supporting the Nasdaq to close slightly higher.

(JPMorgan Chase's stock price plummets)

Silver has performed outstandingly, breaking through the $60 mark and setting a new historical high, significantly outperforming gold. The resilience of the US dollar and expectations of loose supply and demand next year continue to pressure the energy market. WTI crude oil fell below the key technical level and fell to around $58 per barrel, continuing its recent decline.

Overall, in the next 24 hours, it will not be the interest rate cut itself that will determine the market's direction, but rather Powell's wording.

On Tuesday, the US stock market experienced mixed gains and losses, with JPMorgan Chase falling nearly 5% and leading the Dow Jones Industrial Average's component stocks. The chip index stopped rising for two consecutive years, with Nvidia closing down 0.31% and analysts suggesting that demand for H200 chips may be lower than expected, while Broadcom rose over 1%, marking three consecutive increases and reaching a historic high.

US stock benchmark index:

The S&P 500 index closed down 6 points, or 0.09%, at 6840.51 points.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 179.03 points, or 0.38%, at 47560.29.

The Nasdaq closed up 30.59 points, or 0.13%, at 23576.49 points.

The Russell 2000 Index closed up 0.21% at 2526.24 points.

(intraday trend of US stock benchmark index)

ETFs in the US stock industry:

The healthcare sector fell 1%, the industrial, real estate, and financial sectors fell up to 0.7%, the technology sector rose 0.1%, and the energy sector rose 0.6%.

(December 9th ETFs for various industry sectors in the US stock market)

Seven tech giants:

The Magnificent 7 index of US technology stocks rose 0.11% to 208.56 points.

Tesla closed up 1.27%, Google A rose 1.07%, Amazon and Microsoft rose up to 0.45%, Apple and Nvidia closed down up to 0.31%, and Meta fell 1.48%.

Chip stocks:

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed down 0.04% at 7372.51 points.

TSMC's revenue increased by 0.51%, while AMD's rose by 0.23%.

Chinese concept stocks:

The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 1.37% at 7730.61 points.

Baidu closed down 4.71%, while Beike, Wenyuan Zhixing, and Xiaopeng fell at least 3.46%, Ideal fell 3.12%, Bilibili and Yihang Intelligence fell at most 2.42%, and Artus Solar, Zaiding Pharmaceutical, and Alibaba fell at least 1.37%.

Other stocks:

Berkshire Hathaway's B-class stock closed down 1.17%, while Eli Lilly fell 1.54%.

Adobe closed up 1.53%, while Broadcom rose 1.29%, Salesforce、 Oracle and Qualcomm rose as much as 0.57%, while Netflix closed down 0.08%.

The Eurozone blue chip index closed down more than 0.1%, with component stocks such as Eurovision, Luxgen, and MediaTek falling about 5.6%. The German stock index closed up about 0.5%, while the Italian banking sector rose about 0.9%.

Pan European European stocks:

The European STOXX 600 index closed down 0.10% at 577.77 points.

The Eurozone STOXX 50 Index closed down 0.13% at 5718.32 points.

National stock indices:

The German DAX 30 index closed up 0.49% at 24162.65, with constituent stock Bayer leading the way with a 4.13% increase.

The CAC 40 index in France closed down 0.69% at 8052.51 points, led by a 5.57% drop in the constituent stock Essilo Luxottica EL.

The FTSE 100 index in the UK closed down 0.03% at 9642.01 points.

(Performance of Major European and American Benchmark Stock Indices on December 9th)

Sector and individual stocks:

Among the blue chip stocks in the Eurozone, Bayer, listed in Frankfurt, Germany, closed up 4.13%, Rheinmetall RHM rose 3.56%, Allianz Insurance rose 3%, Deutsche Bank rose 1.89%, and Wacker Group rose 1.58%, ranking fifth.

Among all the constituent stocks of the European STOXX 600 index, LPP Group closed up 6.26%, Hensoldt shares rose 5.86%, military stock Renk Group rose 5.50%, ranking third, and Bayer rose sixth.

The employment indicators that the Federal Reserve is concerned about unexpectedly rebounded, with job vacancies in the United States rising instead of decreasing. US bond prices stopped rising and fell, and yields rose in a V-shaped pattern during trading. The yield of 10-year US bonds is approaching a two month high. The prices of British bonds have generally risen, and officials from the Bank of England have expressed support for expectations of interest rate cuts.

US treasury bonds

In late New York trading, the yield of the benchmark 10-year US treasury bond bond rose 1.76 basis points to 4.1819%.

The two-year US Treasury yield rose by 3.59 basis points, setting a new daily high of 3.6105%, and quickly rose by about 4 basis points when job vacancy data was released.

(Trends in Major Term Yields of US Treasuries)

European debt:

In late European trading, the yield of German 10-year treasury bond fell 1.2 basis points to 2.850%, and intraday trading was between 2.879% and 2.837%.

The yield on the 10-year treasury bond bond fell 1.8 basis points to 4.510%. The two-year UK Treasury yield fell 2.0 basis points to 3.791%.

The yield of French 10-year treasury bond bonds fell 2.7 basis points to 3.555% on the refresh day.

After the announcement of job vacancies in the United States, the US dollar index accelerated to a week-high, and cryptocurrencies rose. Bitcoin rose more than 5% during trading, breaking $94000, and Ethereum rose nearly 10% at one point.

dollar

In late trading in New York, the ICE US dollar index rose 0.13% to 99.217 points.

The Bloomberg US Dollar Index rose 0.03% to 1214.47 points, with intraday trading ranging from 1212.64 to 1215.70 points.

Non US currency:

In late trading in New York, the euro fell 0.09% against the US dollar, the pound fell 0.18% against the US dollar, and the US dollar fell 0.06% against the Swiss franc.

Japanese Yen:

In late trading in New York, the US dollar rose 0.37% against the Japanese yen to 155.90 yen, with intraday trading in the range of 154.90-155.99 yen.

The euro rose 0.35% against the yen to 181.45 yen; The pound rose 0.34% against the yen to 207.752 yen.

Offshore Renminbi:

At the end of trading in New York, the US dollar was trading at 7.0610 yuan against offshore Chinese yuan, down 107 points from the end of trading in New York on Monday. The overall trading for the day was in the range of 7.0721-7.0600 yuan.

Cryptocurrency:

At the end of trading in New York, the CCME Bitcoin futures BTC main contract rose 2.12% compared to the end of trading on Monday, closing at $92915.

(Bitcoin has risen significantly)

The CME Ethereum Futures DCR main contract rose 5.97% to $3330.50.

Crude oil has fallen to a two-week low for two consecutive weeks, with a intraday drop of over 1%. WTI crude oil fell below the key technical level and fell to around $58 per barrel, continuing its recent decline.

Crude oil:

WTI January crude oil futures closed down $0.63, or 1.07%, at $58.25 per barrel.

(WTI crude oil futures approach the lower edge of the downward channel again)

Brent crude oil futures for February closed down $0.55, or 0.88%, at $61.94 per barrel.

natural gas:

NYMEX's January natural gas futures closed at $4.5740 per million British thermal units.

Gold hit a one week low in intraday trading and then turned up, with futures closing at a low for the month; Silver rebounded, breaking $60 for the first time in history, and futures silver rose nearly 5% at one point. London copper fell more than 1%, bidding farewell to record highs.

Gold:

In late trading in New York, spot gold rose 0.44% to $4208.92 per ounce, with intraday trading ranging from $4170.29 to $4221.39.

(Spot gold price)

COMEX gold futures rose 0.47% to $4237.40 per ounce, and also set a new daily high of $4251.70 after the release of job vacancy data in the United States.

Silver:

In late trading in New York, spot silver rose 4.34% to $60.6777 per ounce.

COMEX silver futures rose 4.78% to $61.205 per ounce.

Other metals:

In late trading in New York, COMEX copper futures fell 1.98% to $5.3365 per pound.

Spot platinum rose 2.62% to $1697.12 per ounce; Spot palladium rose 2.41% to $1511.46 per ounce.